Upper End Luxury Home & Condo Sales Hit Record Levels in 2017

 As previous reported in my regular real estate blog titled "What A Difference A Year Makes" I reviewed the overall real estate market activity for the first two months of 2018 versus the same time last year.  Essentially we are seeing the same diminished sales activity in the upper end "luxury" segment of the market as we are seeing overall, 2018 is indeed getting off to a slow start.

  During 2017 the southern Georgian Bay region saw an unprecedented increase in the demand for and sales of higher end properties priced from $750,000 and up. We consider $750,000 as the base starting point for upper end property sales in this area as typically this represents the top 10% of the local MLS® market locally.

  Luxury home and condominium sales have been steadily increasing in recent years but 2017 brought forth exceptional results with total MLS® sales above $750,000 totalling 245 properties, an increase of 51% over 2016.  We are now four months into 2018 and the real estate market here in the southern Georgian Bay area and in many other areas including the Greater Toronto Area(GTA) has changed significantly from this time last year. See my blog post "What A Difference A Year Makes."  The market has clearly cooled off.  In the 1st Quarter of 2017 (January through March) upper tier home and condominium sales over $750,000 totalled 49 properties.  In the first three months of 2018 that number dropped by 8% with 45 sales above $750,000 reported through the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS®.

 The GTA is a major feeder market for us here in the southern Georgian Bay area.  This year has gotten off to a slower start in the GTA as well as in outlying markets such as Oakville, Burlington, Guelph, Kitchener, Waterloo and London.  Condo sales in the GTA have remained relatively strong but single family home sales and especially those at the high end of the market are well down from this time last year.  Sales of homes price over $1 million are down 55% to 60% across the GTA and into Burlington, Oakville and Hamilton.  A recent report published by the Financial Post states that luxury home sales in Toronto have been "hit hardest."  Clearly the current market is not the same as it was this time last year.

At this point in time we can only speculate what the remainder of 2018 is going to bring.  I have been a full time REALTOR® for over fifteen years and I watch market activity and statistics closely.  I remain very confident about the demand for area properties in 2018 but at the same time, we can not ignore some key factors that will impact sales in 2018 including increases in mortgage lending rates, tighter lending rules overall and the foreign buyer's tax which has no doubt impacted sales in the Toronto (GTA) area. 

  For the most part housing inventory will probably remain low in 2018 with the exception of the upper end of the market.  As of this post there were 142 area properties listed for sale on the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® priced over $750,000.  Given the current rate of sales this year that represents close to 10 months of inventory.

  If you are serious about selling you home no matter what price range it is in,  pricing your property realistically this year will be key in attracting a worthy buyer.  In the first few months of 2017, multiple offers and selling prices were happening at a rate unlike any of us in the local real estate market had ever seen.  While we are continuing to see some properties in the lower price ranges attracting multiple offers with strong pricing, it's not to the same extent as this time last year.

  Has the market crashed?  No but it has changed and market conditions overall have slowed significantly from last year and ultimately this can be good for both sellers and buyers.  A strong, "balanced" market with adequate inventory and conditions that favour neither buyers and or sellers to a greater degree than the other is the ideal environment for all of us to be in when it comes to our real estates needs and goals.

  More on this in future posts.  In the meantime  please feel free to Contact Me  for a qualified and unbiased consultation regarding your real estate selling or buying needs and objectives.

Property Sales Between $1 and $2 Million Are Up 88% in 2017

  Through the first nine months of 2017, MLS® unit sales overall across Southern Georgian Bay have actually decreased from one year ago with 12% fewer properties sold through the local MLS® system than in the same period last year.  The one exception to this is the upper end of the market where the sale of higher priced homes and condominiums is significantly higher this year resulting in an 8% increase in MLS® dollar volume.  MLS® dollar sales totals $876 million to the end of the 3rd Quarter and it’s all due to the sales of upper end homes and condominiums in the region which are those properties priced $750,000 and higher.

  Through the end of the 3rd Quarter, MLS® home and condominium sales priced $750,000 and higher are up 88% from this time last year with 196 sales reported this year compared to 104 in the first nine months of 2016.  The combined value of these 196 sales is just over $203 million, almost 21% of the total market. The real strength is in the $1 to $2 million segment which has doubled this year with 99 sales compared to 49 sales during the same period last year.  Not so many years ago, a $1 million property sale in our area caught your attention.  Now it's almost an every day occurrence and this trend is increasing as the number of luxury home and condominium properties valued at $1 to $2 million and higher grows annually.

  Not surprisingly the Blue Mountains is where the bulk of the higher end homes are located.  Year-to-date, 70 of the 196 sales (39%) reported above $750,000 are in the Blue Mountains close to area ski clubs, in the Thornbury area or west at Lora Bay. The Town of Collingwood is a distant second with 40 sales above $750,000 through the first nine months of the year.  By comparison in 2009 there were just two MLS® sales in Collingwood over $750,000 plus I sold an unlisted property in the town that year for just over $1 million.  Here we are eight years later and we are on track to do well over 50 MLS® sales in Collingwood this year above the $750,000 mark.  The main driver behind this trend is the growing influx of buyers coming from the Greater Toronto Area where they have sold their former residence for $1 million dollars or more and are retiring to Collingwood and the neighbouring municipalities.  How soon with this trend end?  I believe we are only in the early stages of this retirement migration and we have ten to twenty years of solid growth yet to come in this and all aspects of the local real estate market.

   As of this post there are 163 active MLS® listings in our market area priced $750,000 and higher.  This translates into about 7.5 months of inventory at the current rate of sales.  Understandably, the higher a property is priced the longer it will typically take to sell.  Buyers with $1 million dollars or more in their pocket are not as plentiful as in the lower price ranges.  Add to this the fact that upper end buyers are by their nature very discerning with specific tastes and the time to successfully market an expensive property to secure a worthy buyer goes up even more.

  It is not surprising that the Blue Mountains is not only home to the larger number of higher end sales but also the highest average sale price for properties in the upper price ranges.  Whether it is Osler Bluff, Craigleith, Alpine or Georgian Peaks,  buyers are willing to pay more to be closer to their private ski club and these clubs along with the Georgian Bay Club or Lora Bay golf courses tend to create the biggest draw in terms where affluent buyers are willing to make a significant real estate purchase. 

  Please feel free to Contact Me and I would be happy to share my  knowledge and experience of the Southern Georgian Bay luxury real estate market in order to assist you with making you the right choice for your buying and selling needs.  These properties are different from your run-of-the-mill homes as are buyer and seller market participants that deal in them that is why you need a qualified and knowledgeable REALTOR® to assist you in making qualified decisions.  

  A copy of this information is available to download by clicking here.

Home & Condo Sales Over $1 Million Nearly Triple in 2017

  As in many markets across Canada, real estate sales across the Southern Georgian Bay region in 2017 have been very robust with multiple offers and properties selling for over their asking prices the order of the day.  Nonetheless, MLS® unit sales which total 1,392 properties sold to the end of June and up a modest 1% over 2016.  MLS® dollar volume however is up 27%!  Why the disparity between MLS® unit and dollars results?  It's upper end home sales.

  For the first six months of 2017, residential home and condominium sales in our market valued at $750,000 and above total 139 properties.  This represents a 107% increase over the 67 properties sold in the first six months of 2016.  More significantly sales over $1 million in the first six months of this year are essentially triple that of one year ago.  Through the end of June there have been 74 sales over $1 million compared to just 26 sales in the same period last year.  In addition to this impressive increase in the number of resale properties sold through the MLS® valued above $750,000 there is also a significant number of new builds in areas such as Nipissing Ridge at Blue Mountain, Lora Bay west of Thornbury and elsewhere many of which are well over the $750,000 mark not including the land.

  The municipality of the Blue Mountains continues to be the dominant location for upper end residential properties.  Many of the buyers for expensive homes and chalets in the area are members of the private ski clubs and it is often their desire to be located close to their respective clubs.  Of the 139 MLS® sales year-to-date over $750,000, 55 of those (40%) are in the Blue Mountains.  The average sale price of these 55 properties is just over $1.2 million.

  The Town of Collingwood  comes in second in terms of the number of upper end homes sales year-to-date with 28 sales so far this year compared to just 10 in 2016, an increase of 180%.  To illustrate just how much our market has changed, in 2009 there were just two MLS® sales in Collingwood over $750,000, in 2016 there were a total of 32 and this year we are on track to see upwards of 60. 

  Upper end home and condo sales in the remaining municipalities throughout our region year-to-date round out as follows:  Clearview Township 27 sales up 69%, Wasaga Beach 12 sales up 50%, Grey Highlands 11 sales up 83% and the Municipality of Meaford 5 sales up 67% from one year ago.  

  It will be interesting to watch this segment of the market through the balance of 2017.  As of June we have already seen the overall market slow down from the frantic pace of sales we experienced in the first five months of this year.  Unlike the overall market where the number of new MLS® listings is down 16% year-to-date which is suppressing sales somewhat, there remains a significant supply of listings on our MLS® system over $750,000.  As of this posting there are currently 173 homes and condominiums listed for sale over $750,000 which represents a 7.5 month supply based on the current pace of sales.

  In my next post I will discuss upper end property pricing throughout the various municipalities in our region.  As with real estate overall, locations plays a key role relative to pricing and the luxury, upper end segment of the market is no different. 

  For a confidential no obligation consultation of your luxury home/condominium selling or buying objectives, please do not hesitate to Contact Me.