2018 Year End Carriage Trade Homes Market Review

  As reported in the 2018 Year End Real Estate Market Review post of my Live Play - Georgian Bay blog, sales activity across the southern Georgian Bay area softened in 2018 and this also included the high end luxury home segment of our market. (Click on graphs to enlarge).

  After running a number of statistical reports for last year, MLS® sales of homes and condominiums  priced above $750,000 totalled  222 properties, 23 or 9% less than in 2017.  Given the fact that MLS® unit sales in the area overall declined 24% last year, the upper end performed quite well.  During the past five years sales of higher priced properties in our market have grown significantly from 82 units in 2014 to well over 200 sales in both 2017 and 2018.  Even with the 9% reduction in MLS® unit sales last year, sales of properties priced above $750,000 were up 170% from just five years ago.

  MLS® dollar volume in this segment of our market in 2018 totalled $245.2 million and while that was roughly 10% less than the level of sales in 2017, this amount represents over 25% of total MLS® sales in our area as reported by the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS®.  The lower MLS® sales results for higher price homes in the area was also impacted  in 2018 by the significant number of new builds particularly in developments such as Lora Bay and Trailwoods both just west of Thornbury, in the third phase of Nipissing Ridge and others situated close to the base of Blue Mountain. 

 As shown in the accompanying chart, the reduction in higher end sales during 2018 versus 2017 was experienced in most price segments of the luxury home and condominium market with two exceptions.  Properties sold in the $2 to $3 million range increased from eight sales in 2017 to eleven sales during 2018, an increase of almost 36%.  MLS® sales above $3 million remained uncha nged from the prior year with three sales reported in both 2017 and 2018.  While the actual number of sales in these two segments is not large, these results clearly reflect that our market is continuing to move upscale with both full and part-time residents increasing to invest in expensive, finely finished homes and condominiums.


  In terms of luxury home and condo sales by area, the municipality of the Blue Mountains had 49% of all properties sold above $750,000 in our market last year.  Many of the buyers for these properties are members of the area's private ski and golf clubs and as such, desire a residential location close to those amenities as well as ready access to shopping etc.  As shown in the attached graphs, MLS® sales above $750,000 in the Blue Mountains totalled 109 units and over $130 million last year.  The town of Collingwood was a distance second with 49 sales totalling $49 million representing 22% of the market overall for higher end property sales in 2018.  All other municipalities had MLS® sales ranging from 12 to a maximum of 20 residential units or 5% to 9% of the total market.

  In terms of prices, the Blue Mountains lead the market with an average sale price for properties above $750,000 of $1.190 million.  Clearview Township was second with an average sale price of $1.146 million with Collingwood coming in third with an average sale price of  $1.014 million.  Sales in the remaining three municipalities averaged from $927,000 to $1.003 million.  Of the three residential sales that were over $3 million, all were located in the Blue Mountains.

  The slowdown in market activity is somewhat seasonal in nature and will trend upwards in the months ahead as we approach spring.  As of this post, there are 157 active MLS® listings for properties priced over $750,000 which represents 8.5 months of inventory based on the current rate of sales.  As per the accompanying graph the majority of these listings are in the $1.5 million range and higher where unlike below the $1.5 threshold, inventory in these price segments well exceeds total sales for all of 2018.  Higher price homes and condominiums typically take longer to sell.  The potential market for high price properties is smaller with fewer buyers in this segment.  The higher the price the longer it generally takes to sell.  Properties sold in 2018 above $750,000 were on average on the market for anywhere from 52 to 123 days depending on price.  Right now active listings currently for sale have been on the market for anywhere from 70 to 144 days.

  As we head towards spring it will be interesting to see how this segment of our real estate market behaves.  Given weaker sales and market activity in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) buyers of luxury homes appear to be stepping back and are taking a wait-and-see attitude before committing to a purchase.  At the same time two area waterfront properties recently sold for over their asking price and I am aware of another sale which was over $2 million did not close due to insufficient funds so there are definitely some mixed signals being sent.

  Overall I remain positive about the level of market activity we will see in the coming year.  At the same time however both buyers and sellers need to be well informed and advised about pricing, market activity and other factors that may impact their buying and selling objectives. The market has definitely changed, multiple offers are no longer as prevalent as they were in 2016 and 2017.  For sale signs without SOLD stickers are much more commonplace.  Those are the things that we as REALTORS® need to excel at communicating with our clients.  We need to follow the market closely, know the numbers and share them with our valued clients to assist them in making informed, rational decisions.

Copies of my other real estate market reports are available on the Newsletters page of my website www.rickcrouch.realtor.  Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or would like a no obligation consultation as to how current market conditions relate to your real estate buying and or selling needs.

  Download a complete copy of my 2018 Year End Sothern Georgian Bay Carriage Trade Homes Market Review located on the Luxury Homes page of my real estate website.

Copies of my other real estate market reports are available on the Newsletters page of my website.











  

Southern Georgian Bay Luxury Home & Condo Sales Soften in 2018

  As previously covered in my regular real estate blog, year-to-date real estate sales across southern Georgian Bay in 2018 are running well below what we experienced in both 2016 and 2017 and nowhere is this more prevalent than in the upper price segments of the market.

  Once again to clarify what constituents the upper price segments of our market, we consider anything over $750,000 to be the luxury home and or condo segment of our market as typically this represents approximately the upper 10% of unit sales through the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS®.

  MLS® sales over $750,000 for the first 10 months of 2018 total $206.3 million compared to $229.3 million in the same period last year.  That represents a 10% decrease in dollar sales year over year.  Similarly, MLS® unit sales of 189 properties priced $750,000 and higher this year are down 12% from the same time in 2017. 

  The two price segments that are impacted the most are those properties priced between $850,000 to $999,999 and those in the $1.5 to $2 million category where year-to-date unit sales are down 10% and 42% respectively from the first 10 months of 2017.  Two areas that are not reflecting this slowdown in market activity are Collingwood and the Blue Mountains.  MLS® sales above $750,000 in Collingwood are running at the same pace as in 2017 with 44 sales reported through the end of October.  Sales above $750,000 in the Blue Mountains are actually ahead by two units with 88 sales in 2018 versus 86 last year.  The demand for luxury properties in the Blue Mountains remains the highest in our area with most affluent buyers preferring a property that is in close proximity to the area's private ski and golf clubs.  Of the 189 upper end sales reported through the first 10 months of  2018, 46.6% are in the Blue Mountains and this area is also home to the highest average sale value an average year-to-date price of $1.190 million compared to the Township of Clearview which has an average sale price of $1.145 million or roughly 4% less.  Average upper end sale prices in the remaining area municipalities are as follows: Collingwood $1.013 million, Grey Highlands $1.003 million, Wasaga Beach $958,000 and the Municipality of Meaford $927,000.

  It is no surprise that with the highest percentage of upper end sales in the area located in the Blue Mountains, that municipality has the highest average sale price $1.190 million for properties over $750,000. Cleaview Township is a close second at $1.146 million while

  The upper end of our market is one area where the inventory of available properties for sale is not in short supply as is the case overall.  As of this post there are 184 properties listed for sale over $750,000.  Based on the current rate of sales this represents almost 10 months of inventory which is a significant amount when the overall average days-on-market for sold properties is running 47 days.  Inventory levels are particularly high above the $1.5 million threshold (see chart).  October year-to-date there have been 22 sales above $1.5 million.  With 67 active listings and MLS® sales running at just over 2 units per month, there is in excess of 30 months worth of inventory above $1.5 million to be absorbed and I do not see this happening any time soon.

  So what does all this mean to potential buyers and sellers of luxury home and condominiums in our area moving forward?  First I am not a pessimist nor is the information herein to be taken as being negative.  As a licensed real estate Broker for the past 18 years I have always studied the data available to us.  That information is key to helping us provide my real estate clients with the information they need to make qualified and informed decisions.  Starting in May 2017, the local real estate market here in southern Georgian Bay and elsewhere has clearly shifted.  With the odd exception, gone are the crazy bidding wars resulting in over inflated sale prices.  Total MLS® sales dollar volume and unit sales in our area for 2018 will finish 15% to 20%  below the levels we experienced in prior years.  Canada Mortgage and Housing forecasts weaker sales across Canada through 2019 and 2020 in addition to fewer new home starts.  In my opinion this will create a more balanced market for both sellers and buyers. 

 Perhaps the bigger question will be what happens with interest rates.  Mortgage lending rules have crept up as have interest rates and this has clearly put the brakes on some buyers ability or willingness to purchase property at this time.  Clearly the buyers of homes and condos priced above $1 million have already taken this stand reflecting fewer sales in our local market for 2018 coupled with a sharp increase in inventory.  Luxury home sales in Toronto are down 35% this year and what happens in the GTA always impacts our market here as well.

 In keeping with this trend three high end property sales examples come to mind:

Property 1 - Listed originally at $3.65 million the price was reduced to $2.95 million and sold for $2.65 million, a full $1 million (27%) below the original asking price after 293 days on market.

Property 2 - Listed at $4.2 million with several price adjustments (up and down) it sold for $3.25 million, $950,000 (23%) below asking after 1,057 days on market.

Property 3 - Listed at $989,000, the price was reduced under power of sale and sold for $851,000, $138,000 (14%) below asking 181 days on market.

  These examples illustrate that there are still some good values to be had by waiting.  Don't get caught up in the frenzy of multiple offers, waiting to make an offer on the right property at the right time can pay off, as they say "patience is a virtue."

  Click on each chart to enlarge or click Southern Georgian Bay Carriage Trade Homes to download or view a full copy of my latest luxury home marketing report. 

  In my next post I will speak further to the importance of sellers pricing their home or condo correctly to sell and what buyers need to be a ware of when purchasing.  In the meantime for further information or questions on any real estate related topics please feel free to Contact Me.   








     

Royal LePAGE Canada Luxury Property Market Report

Royal LePAGE Canada has just released their report on the luxury home and condominium market across Canada.  Below is what they have reported for the country overall with an emphasis on the Greater Toronto Area, a market that plays a direct role on what happens in our local market here on southern Georgian Bay.

TORONTO, May 10, 2018 – Canada’s spring luxury real estate market is well underway in Canada’s largest cities. While sales in Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are significantly down in the first four months of the year, luxury home prices have remained relatively resilient, according to Royal LePage.

Overall, sales activity declined in Greater Vancouver and the GTA luxury real estate market as both sellers and buyers adjusted to federal and provincial measures affecting both domestic and foreign buyers. The introduction of the new mortgage stress test implemented by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) at the beginning of 2018 created market turmoil as buyers moved to the sidelines in order to gauge the impact on luxury home prices, similar to what was witnessed in the overall residential resale market. More significantly, in British Columbia, the 2018 provincial budget included policies targeting foreign and domestic buyers who do not pay tax in the province, as well as a tax increase for all homes over $3-million through increases to the property transfer and school tax. Similarly, the non-resident property tax included in Ontario’s 16-Point Fair Housing Plan dampened price expectations for the GTA region.

“Home prices in Canada’s luxury real estate market have remained remarkably resilient when you consider the economic headwinds that serial government interventions have created,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “The resilience of home values reflects the strong aspirations of luxury buyers to reside and work in cities that are consistently ranked among the most desirable on the planet.”

During the first four months of 2018, price appreciation of a luxury condominium in Greater Vancouver and the GTA outpaced that of a luxury detached home, with median condominium prices rising by 7.0 per cent and 10.4 per cent year-over-year, respectively. For the same period, the median price of a luxury condominium in the Greater Montreal Area and Ottawa rose by 3.9 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively, while Calgary posted the only decline, decreasing 6.1 per cent.

The Greater Montreal Area posted the largest year-over-year price gain in the detached luxury home segment, increasing 9.1 per cent to $1,569,515 in the first four months of the year. During the same period, detached luxury homes in Ottawa (6.3%) and Greater Vancouver (5.2%) also saw prices rise, while home values in Calgary (0.6%) and the Greater Toronto Area (-0.2%) remained flat.

“Somewhat unusual in historical terms, and reflecting an important demographic shift happening across North America, appreciation in the luxury condominium market is outpacing the traditional target for large value residential property investment, the detached house,” said Soper. “Baby Boomers are finally exiting their large family homes, and luxury condos, with their low maintenance lifestyles, are the favoured destination.

“Contrary to popular belief, wealthy homebuyers are price sensitive too. They didn’t reach the point in their lives where they have the capacity to acquire high-value real estate without being financially astute,” concluded Soper. “Luxury condominiums represent value in today’s market.”

Spring 2019 Forecast

The momentum behind luxury condominium price growth is forecast to continue through the year and into the 2019 spring market in all cities surveyed, with the exception of Calgary. When broken out by region, the median price of a luxury condominium in the GTA is forecast to post the largest price gain, rising 8.0 per cent to $1,847,194 in the first four months of 2019 when compared to the same period in 2018. Over the same timeframe, luxury condominiums in both Ottawa and the Greater Montreal Area are forecast to increase 3.0 per cent. Calgary is the only city surveyed that is expected to see the median price of a luxury condominium dip in spring 2019 when compared to 2018, decreasing 4.0 per cent year-over-year.

Detached luxury home prices in Greater Vancouver are forecast to decline in the first four months of 2019, decreasing 3.0 per cent year-over-year to $5,619,153, while properties in this segment in the GTA are estimated to remain flat (0.0%) over the same period. The Greater Montreal Area and Ottawa are both forecast to increase 5.0 per cent year-over-year, and detached luxury homes in Calgary are expected to rise 2.0 per cent during the same period. 

Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

GTA luxury home price appreciation falls flat after the introduction of Ontario’s 16-Point Fair Housing Plan and OSFI’s most recent mortgage stress test, while luxury condos make largest price gain of any region studied 

The median price of a luxury detached home in the Greater Toronto Area remained relatively unchanged (-0.2%) at $3,522,117 in the first four months of 2018, while the median price of a luxury condominium increased 10.4 per cent year-over-year to $1,710,365 during the same period.

On April 20th, 2017, the Ontario government introduced a 15 per cent non-resident tax on home prices in the Golden Horseshoe as part of the province’s 16-Point Fair Housing Plan. Leading up to the announcement, the median price of a luxury detached home in the first four months of 2017 was $3,527,882, a 23 per cent increase over the same period in 2016, while luxury condos appreciated 8 per cent to $1,549,864.

“When examining the second half of 2017, it is clear that the province’s measures have impacted price appreciation in the Greater Toronto Area’s luxury home market,” said Soper. “The new OSFI mortgage stress test introduced in January, in addition to dampening sales, has also put further downward pressure on detached luxury home prices.”

During the first quarter of 2018, luxury detached home sales decreased 67.9 per sent year-over-year. However the decline was significantly more modest when compared to the same period in 2016 (-18.1%). In the first quarter of 2018, luxury condominium sales decreased 28.2 per cent year-over-year compared to the same period in 2017, while almost twice as high (90.6%) compared the same period in 2016.

The region’s high quality of life for families, a result of good schools and excellent healthcare, is expected to continue to drive foreign buyer interest in the detached luxury home segment once the real estate market adjusts to government measures, and consumer confidence improves.

“Foreign buyers looking at luxury properties in the Greater Toronto Area can often prioritize lifestyle over finances but they also have the privilege of flexibility, allowing them time to watch the market,” said Elli Davis, sales representative, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “The draw for many foreign buyers is our excellent quality of life. While some may choose to sit on the sidelines to gauge the market, the desire to relocate here is still strong.”

While luxury home price appreciation stalled, demand for luxury condominiums remained strong largely driven by established homeowners.

“The selection of luxury condominiums has greatly increased over the years and we are seeing more retirees selling their luxury homes to buy condos with great amenities and little upkeep. Condominiums are also easy properties to manage when you want to spend more time travelling,” added Davis.

When looking ahead to the 2019 spring market, the median price of a luxury condominium in the Greater Toronto Area is forecast to increase 8.0 per cent year-over-year to $1,874,194, while the median price of a luxury detached home is forecast to remain flat (0.0%) at $3,523,378 when examining the first four months of the year.

“Our longer term forecast for the Greater Toronto Area real estate market, including the luxury market, is for healthy price appreciation. The region has experienced significant inventory shortages for many years, has a robust economy and an international reputation as a great place to live and work,” concluded Davis.

Upper End Luxury Home & Condo Sales Hit Record Levels in 2017

 As previous reported in my regular real estate blog titled "What A Difference A Year Makes" I reviewed the overall real estate market activity for the first two months of 2018 versus the same time last year.  Essentially we are seeing the same diminished sales activity in the upper end "luxury" segment of the market as we are seeing overall, 2018 is indeed getting off to a slow start.

  During 2017 the southern Georgian Bay region saw an unprecedented increase in the demand for and sales of higher end properties priced from $750,000 and up. We consider $750,000 as the base starting point for upper end property sales in this area as typically this represents the top 10% of the local MLS® market locally.

  Luxury home and condominium sales have been steadily increasing in recent years but 2017 brought forth exceptional results with total MLS® sales above $750,000 totalling 245 properties, an increase of 51% over 2016.  We are now four months into 2018 and the real estate market here in the southern Georgian Bay area and in many other areas including the Greater Toronto Area(GTA) has changed significantly from this time last year. See my blog post "What A Difference A Year Makes."  The market has clearly cooled off.  In the 1st Quarter of 2017 (January through March) upper tier home and condominium sales over $750,000 totalled 49 properties.  In the first three months of 2018 that number dropped by 8% with 45 sales above $750,000 reported through the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS®.

 The GTA is a major feeder market for us here in the southern Georgian Bay area.  This year has gotten off to a slower start in the GTA as well as in outlying markets such as Oakville, Burlington, Guelph, Kitchener, Waterloo and London.  Condo sales in the GTA have remained relatively strong but single family home sales and especially those at the high end of the market are well down from this time last year.  Sales of homes price over $1 million are down 55% to 60% across the GTA and into Burlington, Oakville and Hamilton.  A recent report published by the Financial Post states that luxury home sales in Toronto have been "hit hardest."  Clearly the current market is not the same as it was this time last year.

At this point in time we can only speculate what the remainder of 2018 is going to bring.  I have been a full time REALTOR® for over fifteen years and I watch market activity and statistics closely.  I remain very confident about the demand for area properties in 2018 but at the same time, we can not ignore some key factors that will impact sales in 2018 including increases in mortgage lending rates, tighter lending rules overall and the foreign buyer's tax which has no doubt impacted sales in the Toronto (GTA) area. 

  For the most part housing inventory will probably remain low in 2018 with the exception of the upper end of the market.  As of this post there were 142 area properties listed for sale on the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® priced over $750,000.  Given the current rate of sales this year that represents close to 10 months of inventory.

  If you are serious about selling you home no matter what price range it is in,  pricing your property realistically this year will be key in attracting a worthy buyer.  In the first few months of 2017, multiple offers and selling prices were happening at a rate unlike any of us in the local real estate market had ever seen.  While we are continuing to see some properties in the lower price ranges attracting multiple offers with strong pricing, it's not to the same extent as this time last year.

  Has the market crashed?  No but it has changed and market conditions overall have slowed significantly from last year and ultimately this can be good for both sellers and buyers.  A strong, "balanced" market with adequate inventory and conditions that favour neither buyers and or sellers to a greater degree than the other is the ideal environment for all of us to be in when it comes to our real estates needs and goals.

  More on this in future posts.  In the meantime  please feel free to Contact Me  for a qualified and unbiased consultation regarding your real estate selling or buying needs and objectives.

Property Sales Between $1 and $2 Million Are Up 88% in 2017

  Through the first nine months of 2017, MLS® unit sales overall across Southern Georgian Bay have actually decreased from one year ago with 12% fewer properties sold through the local MLS® system than in the same period last year.  The one exception to this is the upper end of the market where the sale of higher priced homes and condominiums is significantly higher this year resulting in an 8% increase in MLS® dollar volume.  MLS® dollar sales totals $876 million to the end of the 3rd Quarter and it’s all due to the sales of upper end homes and condominiums in the region which are those properties priced $750,000 and higher.

  Through the end of the 3rd Quarter, MLS® home and condominium sales priced $750,000 and higher are up 88% from this time last year with 196 sales reported this year compared to 104 in the first nine months of 2016.  The combined value of these 196 sales is just over $203 million, almost 21% of the total market. The real strength is in the $1 to $2 million segment which has doubled this year with 99 sales compared to 49 sales during the same period last year.  Not so many years ago, a $1 million property sale in our area caught your attention.  Now it's almost an every day occurrence and this trend is increasing as the number of luxury home and condominium properties valued at $1 to $2 million and higher grows annually.

  Not surprisingly the Blue Mountains is where the bulk of the higher end homes are located.  Year-to-date, 70 of the 196 sales (39%) reported above $750,000 are in the Blue Mountains close to area ski clubs, in the Thornbury area or west at Lora Bay. The Town of Collingwood is a distant second with 40 sales above $750,000 through the first nine months of the year.  By comparison in 2009 there were just two MLS® sales in Collingwood over $750,000 plus I sold an unlisted property in the town that year for just over $1 million.  Here we are eight years later and we are on track to do well over 50 MLS® sales in Collingwood this year above the $750,000 mark.  The main driver behind this trend is the growing influx of buyers coming from the Greater Toronto Area where they have sold their former residence for $1 million dollars or more and are retiring to Collingwood and the neighbouring municipalities.  How soon with this trend end?  I believe we are only in the early stages of this retirement migration and we have ten to twenty years of solid growth yet to come in this and all aspects of the local real estate market.

   As of this post there are 163 active MLS® listings in our market area priced $750,000 and higher.  This translates into about 7.5 months of inventory at the current rate of sales.  Understandably, the higher a property is priced the longer it will typically take to sell.  Buyers with $1 million dollars or more in their pocket are not as plentiful as in the lower price ranges.  Add to this the fact that upper end buyers are by their nature very discerning with specific tastes and the time to successfully market an expensive property to secure a worthy buyer goes up even more.

  It is not surprising that the Blue Mountains is not only home to the larger number of higher end sales but also the highest average sale price for properties in the upper price ranges.  Whether it is Osler Bluff, Craigleith, Alpine or Georgian Peaks,  buyers are willing to pay more to be closer to their private ski club and these clubs along with the Georgian Bay Club or Lora Bay golf courses tend to create the biggest draw in terms where affluent buyers are willing to make a significant real estate purchase. 

  Please feel free to Contact Me and I would be happy to share my  knowledge and experience of the Southern Georgian Bay luxury real estate market in order to assist you with making you the right choice for your buying and selling needs.  These properties are different from your run-of-the-mill homes as are buyer and seller market participants that deal in them that is why you need a qualified and knowledgeable REALTOR® to assist you in making qualified decisions.  

  A copy of this information is available to download by clicking here.

Home & Condo Sales Over $1 Million Nearly Triple in 2017

  As in many markets across Canada, real estate sales across the Southern Georgian Bay region in 2017 have been very robust with multiple offers and properties selling for over their asking prices the order of the day.  Nonetheless, MLS® unit sales which total 1,392 properties sold to the end of June and up a modest 1% over 2016.  MLS® dollar volume however is up 27%!  Why the disparity between MLS® unit and dollars results?  It's upper end home sales.

  For the first six months of 2017, residential home and condominium sales in our market valued at $750,000 and above total 139 properties.  This represents a 107% increase over the 67 properties sold in the first six months of 2016.  More significantly sales over $1 million in the first six months of this year are essentially triple that of one year ago.  Through the end of June there have been 74 sales over $1 million compared to just 26 sales in the same period last year.  In addition to this impressive increase in the number of resale properties sold through the MLS® valued above $750,000 there is also a significant number of new builds in areas such as Nipissing Ridge at Blue Mountain, Lora Bay west of Thornbury and elsewhere many of which are well over the $750,000 mark not including the land.

  The municipality of the Blue Mountains continues to be the dominant location for upper end residential properties.  Many of the buyers for expensive homes and chalets in the area are members of the private ski clubs and it is often their desire to be located close to their respective clubs.  Of the 139 MLS® sales year-to-date over $750,000, 55 of those (40%) are in the Blue Mountains.  The average sale price of these 55 properties is just over $1.2 million.

  The Town of Collingwood  comes in second in terms of the number of upper end homes sales year-to-date with 28 sales so far this year compared to just 10 in 2016, an increase of 180%.  To illustrate just how much our market has changed, in 2009 there were just two MLS® sales in Collingwood over $750,000, in 2016 there were a total of 32 and this year we are on track to see upwards of 60. 

  Upper end home and condo sales in the remaining municipalities throughout our region year-to-date round out as follows:  Clearview Township 27 sales up 69%, Wasaga Beach 12 sales up 50%, Grey Highlands 11 sales up 83% and the Municipality of Meaford 5 sales up 67% from one year ago.  

  It will be interesting to watch this segment of the market through the balance of 2017.  As of June we have already seen the overall market slow down from the frantic pace of sales we experienced in the first five months of this year.  Unlike the overall market where the number of new MLS® listings is down 16% year-to-date which is suppressing sales somewhat, there remains a significant supply of listings on our MLS® system over $750,000.  As of this posting there are currently 173 homes and condominiums listed for sale over $750,000 which represents a 7.5 month supply based on the current pace of sales.

  In my next post I will discuss upper end property pricing throughout the various municipalities in our region.  As with real estate overall, locations plays a key role relative to pricing and the luxury, upper end segment of the market is no different. 

  For a confidential no obligation consultation of your luxury home/condominium selling or buying objectives, please do not hesitate to Contact Me.

High End Home & Condo Sales Up 73% in 1st Quarter

  As with the local real estate market overall, luxury, upper end home and condominium sales have been very robust in the first quarter of 2017.  MLS® sales of properties valued over $750,000 are up 73% during the first three months of this year compared to the first quarter of 2016.

  Sales reported through the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS (SGBAR) for the first quarter total 52 properties valued at $750,000 and higher compared to 30 sales in the first quarter of 2016.  The total value of these 52 sales is $55.6 million compared to $35.2 million in ales last year during the same quarter an increase of 58%.  Despite the significant increase in sales, inventory levels of properties over $750,000 have increased.  As of this post there are 150 active MLS® listings for properties priced above $750,000 up from 138 listings at the start of the year.  The total value of these listed properties is $214.4 million.

  The Blue Mountains remains the major area where the bulk of higher end homes and condominiums are sold.  1st Quarter MLS® sales in the Blue Mountains totals 24 units with a combined value of $29.5 million.  These 24 sales in the Blue Mountains represent 46% all all higher end property sales in our market for the first quarter of 2017 followed by Clearview Township with 13 sales totalling $13.6 million.  1st quarter MLS sales in Collingwood amounted to 6 properties with 5 in Grey Highlands and 4 sales in Wasaga Beach.  No sales above $750,000 in either the Municipality of Meaford or Mulmur Township were reported during the first quarter.

  As previously mentioned the inventory of higher priced homes and condominiums is on the rise and I suspect we will see this trend continue. Why?  Over the past year or so we have seen a dramatic increase in vacant lot sales most of these in the Blue Mountains.  Buyers of higher priced homes and condominiums in the area are often private ski club members with a desire to be close to their respective club.  Of the 96 vacant lots sold through MLS® in the 1st quarter, 58 of those (60%) were in the Blue Mountains.  Building versus buying a resale home looks very attractive to many affluent Buyers allowing them to build exactly what they want.  This might help to explain why the inventory level of properties over $750,000 is on the rise.  I will be watching these statistics closely over the next several months and will report regularly as to what is happening.

Are Canadians In Need of Panic Rooms Yet?

According to an article featured by an organization I am a member of, the  Institute of Luxury Home Marketing, panic rooms are becoming increasingly popular with affluent home buyers.  That begs the question are we ready or in need of such a household amenity here in Canada?

  There is no question that in many parts of the world, celebrities, politicians, senior executives and others are at risk from terrorists, or just run of the mill burglars and kidnappers looking to make a quick buck.  We've all seen movies attesting to this and Jodi Foster in the movie Panic Room is probably the best example.  Canada has always been regarded as a safe haven but how long will it be until we start to see our fair share of lunatics such as the gunman in Ottawa a couple of years back.  We are also seeing a greater influx of offshore buyers for Canadian real estate.  Many of these buyers are coming from parts of the world where crime is more prevalent so security may be more of priority with them when it comes to their place of residence.

 Today panic rooms may be nothing more than something to brag about at cocktail parties but I am sure they will become more prevalent in larger Canadian cities like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver in the years ahead.  Unfortunately the age of innocence as depicted in television shows such Leave It To Beaver (I am dating myself) is over.  Even in the southern Georgina Bay regions we are seeing more and more homes with elaborate alarm systems and web based camera monitoring both inside and out.

Read the full article on panic rooms as featured in Architectural Digest magazine.

Upper End Home Sales Off to a Robust Start in 2017

  As covered in my regular blog, real estate activity across Southern Georgian Bay has gotten off to a very strong start for 2017 despite the ongoing lack of inventory and the upper end luxury home and condominium market is no exception.

 MLS® unit sales of residential properties priced $750,000 and higher are up 73% for the first two months of 2017.  Through the end of February there have been 33 MLS® sales reported by the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) compared to just 19 sales in the first two months of 2016 at 73% increase.  What is perhaps of even greater significance is the fact that these 33 sales represent over 30% of the total MLS® dollar volume in the area for the first two months of the year.  The strong sales of higher priced properties is really serving to prop up MLS® dollar sales stemming from lagging sales due to low inventory in the lower price points.


  The Blue Mountains remains the stronghold for upper tier home sales in the area with 16 sales to date representing close to 50% of the market.  As I have stated before, Buyers in this segment are often private ski and or golf club members who prefer to be located near to their respective clubs. Collingwood and Clearview Township come in tied for second place with 7 sales above $750,000 in each of these two municipalities for the first two months of the year.

Selling a higher priced upper tier property in our market has typically been a long process and in the past it has not been uncommon to have two years or more inventory listed for sale priced above $750,000.  At the start of 2017 there were 134 properties listed for sale on our local MLS® system priced over the $750,000 mark which represented 9.9 months worth of inventory.  Currently that inventory has risen to 138 active listings as of this posting however based on the strong sales activity we have seen in the first two months of the year, the inventory supply number has dropped to 8.4 months.   Buyers in the upper end price ranges often prefer to build exactly what they want provided there is available land to do so.  The availability of vacant lots has not been an issue in recent years but we have seen a real run on vacant land sales over the past few months particular in the Blue Mountains in fully serviced subdivisions such as Nipissing Ridge 3 and Lendway Valley.

  Selling an upper end home in a market with abundant inventory takes more than placing a sign on the lawn and listing the property on MLS® and it starts with the appropriate pricing in order to drive showing activity and a potential Buyer.  As a Market Value Appraiser and Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist I can assist you in establishing a pricing and marketing strategy that will generate results.  Whether buying or selling, Contact Me for a no obligation and confidential discussion about your specific real estate needs or goals.
 

Upper Tier Luxury Home and Condo Sales Increase 54% in 2016

  The sale of upper tier homes and condominiums in the southern Georgian Bay area continues to be an increasingly significant segment of the local real estate market.  MLS® sales in this niche were up 54% in 2016 having a profound effect on total MLS® dollar sales.  For the purpose of defining luxury or upper end real estate, we consider anything priced over $750,000 as properties in this value range represent approximately the top 10% of the local market.

  A total of 162 sales were reported over $750,000 during 2016 on the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS (SGBAR).   Total dollar sales in this segment were $187.4 million which represents 18% of all MLS® sales in the region for 2016.   It is important to note that this does not include any private sales, or sales made directly by builders and others that did not go through the MLS® system.

The Blue Mountains continues to lead other area municipalities by almost 50% with respect to the number of annual upper end home and condominium sales.  A total of 60 properties sold in the Blue Mountains last year with prices ranging from $751,000 for a property in Thornbury to a $3.945 million waterfront estate near Georgian Peaks. MLS® residential sales in the Blue Mountains for these 60 properties totalled just under $76 million which is 37% of the total region's upper end market during 2016 both in terms of units sold and dollar volume.  Buyers for these properties are often members of the area's private ski and golf clubs and these Buyers have a strong desire to be close to their respective clubs in developments such as Nipissing Ridge, Lora Bay, Windrose Estates and others.  The Blue Mountains is also home to some of the area's finest waterfront properties.

  Not so many years ago, it was hard to find a house priced above $750,000 in Collingwood.  In 2009 I sold a non-listed home for $1.1 million.  That same year there was only one MLS® sale in Collingwood of a residential property over $750,000.  Times have changed as in 2016 there were 31 sales in the municipality placing Collingwood in the number two position in terms of unit MLS® sales for high end properties in the region.  Sales prices ranged from $749,000 for a new home at the south end of Town to $2.33 million for a waterfront home in Princeton Shores.  These 31 MLS® sales totalled $29.8 million and amounted to 19% of the region's upper end market.  Of the seven municipalities covered in my analysis, Collingwood ranks 5th in average price for upper end homes sales with an average selling price for 2016 of $960,000.

  During 2016, Clearview Township came in third in terms of the number of MLS® listings sold with 29 residential sales ranging from $760,000 to $2.9 million.  Many of these sales were properties with larger acreages and highly sought after views of the surrounding countryside and or Georgian Bay.  Although Clearview Township trails the Blue Mountains by over 50% in terms of the number of high end properties sold, Clearview is home to the highest average sale price in the upper tier market segment at $1.328 million which is primarily due to the larger property sizes associated with these homes.

  The remaining municipalities of Grey Highlands, Meaford, Mulmur and Wasaga Beach each have their own share of higher priced residential properties and combined they accounted for a total of 42 MLS® sales in 2016, 26% of the overall market with a combined sales value of $42.3 million.  These areas continue to grow in stature in terms of being desirable locations for more expensive residential properties and this trend will no doubt continue. For the foreseeable future however they will continue to play a smaller, less significant role in the rapidly growing demand for higher end homes and condominiums than we are experiencing in areas like the Blue Mountains and Collingwood stemming from vast array of recreational, cultural and other amenities that these municipalities offer.

  As of this posting there are 134 active listings on the MLS® system of SGBAR which represents almost 10 months of available inventory based on the current annual rate of sales.  Sales in this segment of the market naturally take longer, require added marketing emphasis and can not be treated the same as the sale of a run-of-the mill property typically found in  large subdivisions.  More on this in future posts.

 If you are looking to list your current high end luxury home/condo or are contemplating the purchase of a special property, please feel free to Contact Me for a confidential discussion of your particular real estate needs and objectives and put my expertise to work for you.





  

Special Properties - Warrant Special Marketing

  Marketing your luxury home, condo or cottage is not a process to be taken lightly.  Most properties at the upper end of the real estate market are unique.  Many have been lovingly designed and created by their owners and as such, they appeal to a select group of buyers each motivated by their own specific and often particular tastes.  

  Higher end luxury properties typically take longer to sell.  Buyers in this realm of real estate are obviously are not as prevalent as those looking for a $300,000 or $400,000 home and it is not at all uncommon for a $2 or $3 million property to be on the market for a year or two before attracting a worthy buyer.  Simply pounding a For Sale sign in the front lawn is not enough and doing nothing more will result in frustration for the seller(s) and listing REALTOR alike.  There are many initiatives that can be implemented to effective market a luxury, high-end property and I will share some of them in upcoming posts.  One however that I would like to touch on herein is the use of aerial photography.  

 Traditionally, taking aerial photos required engaging a photographer and a pilot with a plane or a helicopter to circle a subject property for the purpose of taking photos.  These were typically somewhat distant shots given the ceiling restrictions that exist for conventional aircraft.  All that has changed however with the advent of small unmanned drones with cameras and video recorders that can capture photos and video footage from a few feet above the ground to as high as 400 feet or more.   

 I started using this photographic technique back in 2012 as did some of my Royal LePAGE colleagues.  The quality of the photos was and is superb and the fact that they are captured at a relatively low altitude makes them even more unique.  The drone in the accompanying photo is the latest generation of these devices and was used to take the photos of this waterfront property that I have just brought to market.  The operator is a very skilled pilot who has shot hundreds of photos including homes, cottages, condos, gold courses and more.  He is licensed and fully insured should something go wrong.  

  This type of photography not only goes a long way in highlighting the features of a special property from a unique perspective literally, but also serves to give potential buyers a glimpse of the surrounding neighbourhood or area.  Online photos play a huge role in attracting buyers.  Many times, the properties that a buyer(s) selects to view first hand is determined by the number and quality of photos they view looking at listings online.  As such, I am fussy about the photos taken of my listings both inside and out which is why I am committed to using drone photography wherever it is appropriate. 

 

  Exterior photos is not the only area where advancements in  technology have had an impact.  In my next posting I will cover what we are doing with respect to interior shots that best serves to show our seller clients homes in their best light.

  If you are thinking of selling your property and would like to discuss how photos of the type shown here could be used highlight your home and property, please do not hesitate to Contact Me.  As always I remain committed to "Redefining Your Real Estate Experience."